India has overtaken Kenya to become Rwanda’s leading source of imported goods, marking a significant shift in regional trade dynamics, according to the latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR).
The report shows that in the second quarter of 2025, Indian-origin goods topped Rwanda’s import list, while shipments from Kenya dropped sharply from US$245.1 million recorded a year earlier to just US$78.2 million.
Economists say the decline in Kenyan exports could be linked to changes in trade logistics, increased costs, or Rwanda’s diversification strategy aimed at sourcing from Asian markets. “Rwanda’s growing trade relations with India reflect its commitment to expand global partnerships and reduce dependency on regional imports,” said a trade analyst based in Kigali.
During the same period, Rwanda’s domestic exports fell by 36 percent to US$346 million, while re-exports dropped by 13 percent to US$142.4 million, signaling broader shifts in the country’s external trade performance.
India’s growing presence in Rwanda’s import portfolio includes pharmaceuticals, machinery, textiles, and industrial materials. Meanwhile, Kenyan exports, traditionally consisting of food products, construction materials, and household goods, have faced increasing competition.
The development has sparked debate over East Africa’s changing trade landscape and the need for regional countries to strengthen economic cooperation under the East African Community (EAC) framework.
“This is a wake-up call for Kenya,” said an economist from the University of Rwanda. “It shows how fast trade dynamics can change when countries diversify their supply chains.”
