Mogadishu, Somalia. Tensions are rising once again in Somalia, a nation long entangled in a web of political strife, insurgency, and fragile governance. Ever since the collapse of the central government in 1991, successive Somali administrations have tried and failed to fully rebuild a state strong enough to withstand the challenges of clan rivalries, militancy, and external dependency.
Today, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia finds itself at a critical juncture. With national elections approaching in 2026, the government is pushing through controversial electoral reforms aimed at replacing the clan-based system with universal suffrage. While this is hailed as a step toward true democracy, critics including the regional states of Puntland and Jubaland argue that the reforms are politically motivated, designed to secure Mohamud’s re-election and consolidate his grip on power.
“Somalia has come a long way from state-collapse and lawlessness, yet we still have farther to go. Our most important challenge now is reforming our political system and ending the repetitive cycle of instability,” said President Mohamud.
Electoral standoff and political fractures
Somalia’s electoral model has long been a source of tension. In the 2021 elections, only 28,000 voters in a country of over 15 million had the power to choose lawmakers under the indirect system dominated by clan elders. President Mohamud’s plan to introduce a “one-person, one-vote” system is intended to expand democratic participation.
Yet with limited time before the next elections, the ambitious shift may be too much too soon. Observers warn that reverting to the existing system might be the only way to ensure timely polls. Delays are a familiar story. Former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo overstayed his mandate by 15 months due to election setbacks. Tensions in Mogadishu are already flaring. In late September, two people were killed when rival security units clashed after opposition leaders visited a local police station, an ominous sign of how fragile peace has become.
The dispute goes beyond the ballot box. Since the formation of the Federal Government of Somalia in 2012, the nation has struggled to function cohesively. The constitution remains provisional, and power-sharing between Mogadishu and Somalia’s seven member states is murky. Puntland and Jubaland, the more autonomous regions, have grown increasingly assertive, some say defiant. Late last year, fighting erupted near the Kenyan border over control of the strategic Gedo region.
“Local governments must be full partners in any reform if we are to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and ensure that no region is left behind in the federal system,” stated a National Consultative Council communique in 2023.
Aid, Security, and the Road Ahead
Somalia’s state-building project is sustained largely by foreign donors, who fund nearly two-thirds of the national budget. The African Union peacekeeping mission continues to be the backbone of national security. However, international patience is waning. The Trump administration’s aid cuts from $750 million in 2024 to $150 million in 2025 have hit hard. Somalia is seeking new partnerships, deepening ties with Türkiye and Gulf states, but these relationships cannot fully replace the vast sums once provided by Western donors.
Despite the political turbulence, Somalia has made real progress. Al-Shabaab has been largely pushed out of major cities, enabling economic revival, especially in Mogadishu, where modern skyscrapers now define the skyline. Security remains a concern. Al-Shabaab continues sporadic attacks, including a recent prison raid, but overall violence has declined compared to a decade ago.
For Somalia to sustain its fragile progress, leaders must find common ground. A credible compromise on the electoral model is essential to maintain legitimacy and prevent further division. In the long run, success depends on solidifying the federal system and clearly defining powers between the central government and member states.
Failure to do so risks deepening rifts, alienating international partners, and empowering Al-Shabaab once more. Ordinary Somali citizens, those striving for peace and prosperity, would bear the brunt of the fallout. Somalia stands at a crossroads between renewal and regression, democracy and discord. The choices made in the coming months could determine the country’s fate for generations to come.
