Trade between Rwanda and Tanzania has dropped sharply, signaling a significant shift in regional supply chains. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Rwanda’s imports from Tanzania fell to US $52.91 million in September 2025, down from US $92.64 million in September 2024, a decline of approximately 42.9 percent.
Tanzania has now fallen to third place among Rwanda’s import sources, behind China and India. Its share of Rwanda’s total imports has dropped from about 16 percent a year ago to roughly 10.8 percent.
Traditionally, Rwanda imported goods such as petroleum products, cereals (rice and maize), and construction materials (cement, sand, and gravel) from Tanzania. However, these products are increasingly being sourced through the Northern Corridor via Kenya or imported directly from Asia.
Experts attribute the shift to several factors, including a surge in imports from India (+73.2%) and China (+15.8%), as well as trade frictions, such as non-tariff barriers imposed by Tanzania on Rwandan dairy exports.
The implications of this shift are significant. For Rwanda, it presents an opportunity to diversify supply chains, though it also increases dependence on longer transport corridors and distant suppliers. For Tanzania, the loss of a major export market could affect exporters of bulk commodities. Regionally, this decline points to a structural change in East African trade logistics, with the traditional Central Corridor losing prominence.
Analysts note that the over 40 percent drop in Rwanda’s imports from Tanzania is not merely a temporary fluctuation but a potential long-term realignment in how and where Rwanda sources goods, with the potential to reshape trade flows across the region for years to come.
