President Donald Trump’s latest sanctions on Russia’s top oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, have sent shockwaves through global markets. These sanctions are designed to weaken Moscow’s ability to finance its ongoing war in Ukraine, but their effects are already being felt far beyond Russia’s borders.
In both India and China, Russia’s biggest oil customers’ major companies have started canceling orders ahead of the November 21 deadline. This shows growing concern about violating the new U.S. restrictions. However, both nations face a difficult balancing act.
For India, the sanctions create a dilemma. The country depends heavily on discounted Russian oil to fuel its economy, yet it also values its deepening relationship with the United States. Complying with the sanctions might strengthen ties with Washington but could also raise energy costs and strain relations with Moscow.
China, meanwhile, has been Russia’s most reliable economic ally since the war began. Still, Beijing is cautious not to provoke U.S. penalties on its state-owned firms. Experts suggest that while China might temporarily scale back purchases, it is unlikely to abandon Russian oil completely.
Analysts believe that the full impact of Trump’s ‘tremendous’ sanctions will depend largely on how India and China respond. Even if they cut direct imports, both nations could still rely on complex trade networks and Russia’s growing ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers to keep the oil flowing discreetly.
Although the sanctions are expected to hurt Russia’s economy, Moscow has a long history of finding workarounds. The success of this latest U.S. effort will ultimately depend on how strictly Washington enforces the new rules and how far Asian buyers are willing to go to keep Russian oil in their energy mix.
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